The hole is consistent with a bullet hole as it is common to see jagged tearing of metal around the area of penetration from a bullet. Let's look at it from a forensic perspective. The second area of missing porcelain to the right (still covered in black paint), could be from the bullet impacting the inside of the lid after if penetrated through the original hole. The bullet would have expanded on impact and lost quite a bit velocity penetrating the lid. It might not have had enough power to penetrate a second time but the second impact would have caused the porcelain to crack and break. The hypothetical bullet path appears to line up from left to right and slight upwards trajectory. Once you clean the inside of the lid, it will be interesting to see if there is any missing porcelain also on the inside where the second area of missing porcelain is.
Hell, maybe this kettle was owned by Anthony Giordano ("Tony G") of the infamous Giordano Crime Family of St. Louis. As
@Craig says, "Every kettle has a story". Maybe this one's story is a little more sinister.
Sorry, I got carried away as old work habits are hard to break even in retirement.
Maybe a silly question, but does it look like a bullet hole?
It's a pretty small hole. I'm going to say... maybe.